The United Kingdom is set to hold its first national election in nearly five years this Thursday (today). Opinion polls indicate that Prime Minister Rishi Sunak’s Conservative Party may face backlash for not fulfilling promises made during their 14-year tenure.
The centre-right Conservatives, who came to power during the global financial crisis, have since won three additional elections. However, their time in office has been characterized by economic stagnation, deteriorating public services, and numerous scandals, making them vulnerable to criticism from both the left and the right.
The Labour Party, which leans left, is leading in most opinion polls by centering its campaign around the theme of “Change.”
The Conservatives are also contending with the new Reform Party, which is attracting votes from the rightwing of the Conservative base by criticizing the Tory leadership’s handling of immigration issues.
Election Process: Voters across the United Kingdom will elect all 650 members of the House of Commons, one for each local constituency. There are no primaries or run-offs, only a single round of voting on July 4.
Britain uses a “first past the post” voting system, meaning the candidate with the most votes in each constituency is elected, even if they don’t achieve 50% of the vote. This system has generally reinforced the dominance of the two largest parties, the Conservatives and Labour, as smaller parties struggle to win seats unless they have concentrated support in specific areas.
How is the Prime Minister Chosen?
The party that secures a majority in the Commons, either on its own or with the support of another party, will form the next government, and its leader will become prime minister. This means the election results will determine the government’s political direction, which has been led by the center-right Conservatives for the past 14 years. The center-left Labour Party is currently seen as being in a strong position.
Who is Running?
Rishi Sunak, a former Treasury chief and prime minister since October 2022, is leading the Conservative Party into the election. His main opponent is Keir Starmer, a former director of public prosecutions in England and leader of the Labour Party since April 2020.
Other parties, some with strong regional support, could be key in forming a coalition government if no party wins an outright majority. The Scottish National Party, which advocates for Scottish independence, the Liberal Democrats, and the Democratic Unionist Party, which seeks to maintain ties between Britain and Northern Ireland, are the three largest parties in Parliament after the Conservatives and Labour. Additionally, the new Reform Party, led by Brexit campaigner Nigel Farage, is expected to draw votes from the Conservatives.
Why are the Conservatives Under Pressure?
Since taking power in 2010, the Conservatives have faced a series of challenges. Initially, they dealt with the fallout from the global financial crisis, which increased Britain’s debt and led to years of austerity measures to balance the budget. They then navigated Britain’s exit from the European Union, managed one of the deadliest COVID-19 outbreaks in western Europe, and saw inflation soar after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
Despite the circumstances, many voters blame the Conservatives for a range of problems facing Britain, from sewage spills and unreliable train service to the cost-of-living crisis, crime, and the influx of migrants crossing the English Channel in inflatable boats.
Additionally, the party has been marred by repeated ethical lapses among government ministers, including lockdown-busting parties in government offices. These scandals forced former Prime Minister Boris Johnson out of office and eventually out of Parliament after he was found to have lied to lawmakers. His successor, Liz Truss, lasted only 45 days after her economic policies plunged the economy into turmoil.
What are the Big Issues?
The Economy: Britain has struggled with high inflation and slow economic growth, making many people feel poorer. Although the Conservatives managed to control inflation, which slowed to 2% in the year through May after peaking at 11.1% in October 2022, growth remains sluggish, raising questions about the government’s economic policies.
Immigration: Thousands of asylum seekers and economic migrants have crossed the English Channel in flimsy inflatable boats in recent years, leading to criticism that the government has lost control of Britain’s borders. The Conservatives’ main policy to address this is a plan to deport some migrants to Rwanda. Critics argue that this plan violates international law, is inhumane, and will not stop people fleeing war, unrest, and famine.
Health Care: Britain’s National Health Service, which provides free health care to everyone, is plagued with long waiting lists for everything from dental care to cancer treatment. Newspapers frequently report on seriously ill patients waiting hours for an ambulance, and then even longer for a hospital bed.
The Environment: Prime Minister Sunak has backtracked on several environmental commitments, including pushing back the deadline for ending the sale of gasoline- and diesel-powered vehicles and authorizing new oil drilling in the North Sea. Critics argue that these policies are misguided at a time when the world is trying to combat climate change.
Why is the Election Being Held Now?
Six weeks ago, Sunak surprised pundits and many of his own lawmakers by setting the election for July 4, at least three months earlier than expected.
While most observers anticipated the vote would occur in the fall, Sunak took a gamble on a summer election, hoping that positive economic news would convince voters that Conservative policies were starting to yield results.
The decision was so unexpected that it stirred controversy. Allegations surfaced that party members and police officers assigned to protect government officials had placed bets on a summer election, suggesting they had inside information and undermining Sunak’s claim that his party is more trustworthy than Labour.
Commentators had been speculating about the timing of the election for months because the parliamentary term was scheduled to end in mid-December. While each parliament is elected for up to five years, the prime minister can call an election whenever it is politically advantageous.
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