The recently refurbished Port Harcourt refinery has begun exporting refined petroleum products, marking its first sale of low-sulfur straight-run fuel oil to Dubai-based Gulf Transport and Trading Limited.
According to a Friday report by data analysis firm Kpler, the refinery activated its Coolant Distribution Unit 1 this week, with operations estimated at 20,000 barrels per day. The 60,000bpd facility, currently running at 70% capacity, shipped its first cargo, signaling a phased resumption of operations.
The shipment will carry 15,000 metric tons of the product, equivalent to approximately 13.6 million liters.
The report said, “Port Harcourt sold its first LSSR cargo, with a sulfur content of 0.26 per cent wt and a 0.918 g/ml density at 15°C, to Dubai-based Gulf Transport & Trading Limited. Loading onboard the Wonder Star MR1 in the coming days. The 15,000 metric tonnes cargo, sold at a $8.50/t discount to the NWE 0.5 per cent benchmark on an FOB basis.”
Although this will have minimal immediate effect on global VLSFO benchmarks, the development reshapes market dynamics for Atlantic Basin exporters of clean products to Nigeria and the surrounding region.
Kpler noted that this shift could reduce reliance on traditional suppliers from Africa and Europe, as Nigeria’s declining clean product imports are already impacting overall imports into the broader West African market.
It added that the LSSR was produced from the 60,000 bpd section of the refurbished Port Harcourt refinery following a November 26 announcement that it began processing crude oil.
“LSSR production from this train is expected to steady at about 60,000 metric tonnes per month over the near term. The larger 150,000 bpd section of the refinery, however, remains offline and will start up after production from the first phase stabilizes,” it noted.
Continuing, the report said a potential ramp-up to full capacity of 210,000 bpd would weigh on fuel imports to the country after Dangote’s rising refinery runs already pressured gasoline imports to multi-year lows since October.
NNPC stated on 26 November that CDU 1 at Port Harcourt had started operations, also claiming that product exports via trucks had commenced.
Kpler’s in-house crude stocks data corroborates that test runs have been ongoing, with PPMC inventories dropping from 1.5m barrels in August to 1.3Mbbls in October to around 1Mbbls in November (current crude inventories would enable refinery runs of around 30 for one month).
“While CDU 1 has a nameplate capacity of 60,000 bpd, we estimate the unit to only run around 20,000 bpd for the rest of the year, potentially reaching full capacity in Q3 2025, contributing to total Nigerian crude runs of 420,000 bpd in September 2025.
“Port Harcourt’s second CDU could start test runs in late 2025, pushing the refinery’s crude intake to 150,000 bpd in December 2026 and total Nigerian throughput to above 700 kbd.
“As a simple refinery (NCI 4.8) with one 60,000 bpd CD, six kbd Reformer and without an operational FCC (of which we expect the ramp up in late Q3 2025), we estimate that Port Harcourt’s product output will be mainly gasoline, straight run gasoil and fuel oil.
“This implies that by Q4 2025, the plant could supply some 24,000 bpd of fuel oil, 15,000 bpd of gasoline, 15,000 bpd diesel, 6,000 bpd jet, and some minor volumes of LPG. If CDU 2 were to fully start up, moving capacity to 210,000 bpd and including all secondary units (which we don’t expect before Q2 2026), product output could theoretically move to 82,000 bpd gasoline, 78,000 bpd diesel, 20,000 bpd jet and 18,000 bpd residue (fuel oil, bitumen, slurry).
“We project Port Harcourt to run almost entirely on Nigerian crude grades as it is owned by NNPC, and we expect most of the fuel volumes to be consumed by the domestic market and only fuel oil output contributing to product exports,” It noted.
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