Nigeria’s Bonny Light crude oil price dropped 10.6% to $73.53 per barrel from $84.02 on January 15, raising concerns about the Federal Government’s 2025 budget revenue target.  

The 2025 budget is based on a crude oil price benchmark of $75 per barrel, oil production of 2.06 million barrels per day (bpd), and a revenue target of N36.35 trillion, with 56% expected from oil sales. The decline in oil prices signals a potential 6.6% shortfall in the FG’s oil revenue target, compounded by production levels falling below the 2.06 million bpd benchmark.  

Data from the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) shows crude oil output stood at 1.737 million bpd in January 2025, up from 1.667 million bpd in December 2024.