What If MLB Had an NFL-Length Season? Parity Might Look a Lot Different
Imagine this scenario: With two games remaining in the season, the Los Angeles Angels hold a slim half-game lead atop the AL West. A single win over second-place Texas would secure a stunning worst-to-first division title and mark their first postseason appearance since 2014.
If Major League Baseball had a season as short as the NFL’s, that’s essentially where we’d be.
This raises an intriguing hypothetical: What if the MLB season were only 17 games long, just like the NFL’s? It's a thought experiment worth exploring, especially amid ongoing debates about parity in professional sports. The prevailing belief is that the NFL is more competitively balanced — with teams routinely remaining in playoff contention deep into the season, and dramatic year-to-year swings in success.
But how much of that perceived balance is simply due to football’s brevity?
As of now, all but one MLB team has played between 15 and 17 games. And in this small sample size, baseball standings are delivering NFL-like unpredictability.
The Angels, once written off as non-contenders, are leading their division. The Atlanta Braves — perennial powerhouses — are sitting in last place. The Toronto Blue Jays, who finished at the bottom of the AL East in 2024, are now leading the division. At this stage, 23 of 30 teams are within two games of a playoff spot.
Shorter seasons inherently produce more surprising results and tighter standings. That’s something to keep in mind when comparing competitive balance across leagues.
Vibe Shift in the AL East
The rivalry between the Blue Jays and Orioles has taken another turn. From 2021 to 2023, Toronto averaged 90.7 wins, powered by a talented young core featuring Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette. But in 2023, the Orioles surged ahead, stealing the spotlight with their own wave of emerging stars. Toronto slipped to just 74 wins in 2024, raising questions about whether their window had closed and if it was time to trade Guerrero.
Fast forward to this season: the Blue Jays are back on top of the AL East, and Guerrero just signed a 14-year, $500 million extension. Baltimore’s outlook, meanwhile, feels less certain than it did just two years ago. After a mediocre finish to 2024, the Orioles have started 2025 with a 6-9 record and haven’t secured long-term deals with any of their young talent.
The two teams split a short series at Camden Yards over the weekend, with each squad blowing a three-run lead — a perfect encapsulation of the volatility in the early going.
Trivia Time
Q: Who was the last MLB team to go from worst to first in its division in consecutive seasons?
A: The 2016 Boston Red Sox. They finished last in the AL East in 2015 with a 78–84 record, then won the division the following year at 93–69.
Line of the Week
Michael King dazzled for San Diego on Sunday, tossing a two-hit shutout with eight strikeouts in a 6–0 win over Colorado. The Padres completed a three-game sweep, shutting out the Rockies in all three games and improving to 10–0 at home.
Comeback of the Week
The Arizona Diamondbacks pulled off a dramatic rally against Milwaukee on Saturday night, overcoming a four-run deficit in the bottom of the ninth to win 5–4.
After a walk and a triple, followed by another walk, Corbin Carroll doubled in two runs, putting the tying run on second base. Geraldo Perdomo drew a walk to load the bases, and Jake McCarthy followed with a game-tying single. After an intentional walk, Lourdes Gurriel Jr. delivered the game-winning sacrifice fly.
According to Baseball Savant, the Diamondbacks had just a 0.6% win probability earlier in the inning.
Short Baseball Season Would Shift Parity Debate
By Eseoghene Otorie - 4/14/2025, 1:54:21 PM
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